I have been making a nice figure which compares the 21stC sea level projections from the AR5, with previous IPCC reports, Semi empirical models, and an expert elicitation ... I hope this may be useful in presentations for many people (Feel free to use them where ever). See also this page for a similar figure for the Ice sheet contribution only.
The IPCC FAR,SAR,TAR,AR4 have all been converted to RCP scenarios using conversion factors (see below). All projections have been regularized to 100 years using plain scaling.
"Antarctic collapse" does not literally mean a full collapse, but refers to a marine ice sheet instability. Read AR5 text for more precise meaning. We have also published an estimate of worst case sea level rise which you may find here.
Scenario conversion factors that I have used:
The aim of the conversion factors is to predict what the old models would give if forced with new scenarios.
RCP45/A1B=0.90 & RCP85/A1B=1.20 from AR5 fig 13.10Jevrejeva model with SAR fig Ax.9.
Compare TAR II.3.11 with SAR Ax.9. I'd greatly appreciate any comments on how to improve these conversion factors.
Interestingly sea level projections was coming down (and narrowing) until we started getting worrying records from the ice sheets. By AR4 it became evident that the ice sheets had a far more dynamic behavior than previously thought (Larsen-B, Jakobshavn, Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq). It became clear that the representation of ice physics and marine ice sheet interaction needed to be improved (see SeaRISE & ice2sea). Since then the evidence for an important dynamic ice sheet contribution has only been strengthening with e.g. Thwaites in the Antarctic, and Petermann in Greenland.
Note: I might update figs with a better representation of the SEM uncertainties.
If you have comments then please email or tweet me.