I am disappointed in how the sea level rise projection uncertainties are presented in the IPCC AR5. The way the numbers are presented makes people believe 98 cm by 2100 is a worst-case scenario which …
Oct 23, 2014
We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 …
Oct 23, 2014
We examined the impact of the 5 & 9 most major volcanic eruptions on global sea level. We construct a record of sea level and its uncertainty since 1854. From this we isolate the volcanic …
Mar 24, 2014
Detection and attribution of past changes in cyclone activity is hampered by biased cyclone records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here we relate a new homogeneous record of Atlantic …
Dec 24, 2013
We review the two main approaches to estimating sea level rise over the coming century: physically plausible models of reduced complexity that exploit statistical relationships between sea level and …
Dec 24, 2013
It is expected that the balance of the sea level budget will change in the future as the slow giants of the ice sheets awaken. This has been leveled as a criticism of semi-empirical models. For that …
Nov 20, 2013
Bamber & Aspinall 2012 made an expert elicitation of ice sheet experts. They shows this table in their supplementary information:
Nov 20, 2013
Before we can trust the projected models of sea level rise then it is reasonable to demand that these models can match the record of global mean sea level rise. Gregory et al. (2012) writes: …
Nov 20, 2013
There are several lines of evidence pointing to a WAIS collapse during the last interglacial (MIS 5 / Eemian).
Oct 17, 2013
We analyze the global sea-level budget since 1850. Good estimates of sea-level contributions from glaciers and small ice caps, the Greenland ice sheet and thermosteric sea level are available over …
Jun 7, 2013
On realclimate.org Rahmstorf critizes our model (Grinsted et al., 2009) on the basis that it has too low sensitivity (m/ºC) when extrapolated to a 65 m rise in sea level.
Jun 7, 2013
I have recently written a paper where I estimate global glacier volume to be 35 cm using a statistical approach .
Jun 7, 2013