More and Stronger Hurricane surges
Here is an illustration which may help to interpret changes in return period/return magnitude plots.
Sep 30, 2015Posts
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Digitizing pdf figures using inkscape
I recommend using inkscape if you want to digitize a vector figure from a pdf file. Here’s how you do that.
Sep 30, 2015 -
Sea level, the moon, and Frankenstein
Jens Morten Hansen (JMH) and co-authors have recently published a study where they use sine-regression to fit 5 oscillations plus a linear trend to a 160-year sea level record from waters near Denmark …
Sep 25, 2015 -
Three views on sea level commitment
Three recent papers on long term sea level commitment:
Aug 26, 2015 -
Finnish Antarctic expedition 2006-2007 blog
In the austral summer 2006/07 i was part of an ~100 day expedition to Scharffenbergbotnen, Heimefrontfjella, Antarctica with FINNARP. There we collected a ~2.5km long horizontal ice core. We kept a …
Jun 24, 2015 -
Ice sheet pessimists are not outliers
Bamber and Aspinall 2013 published a formal expert elicitation on the future of our two ice sheets, and found a large spread between individual expert answers. It has been argued by them, and others …
May 27, 2015 -
Ice sheet contributions to SLR from Bamber and Aspinall
Bamber and Aspinall (2013) carried out an expert elicitation of ice sheet experts. From this they could derive uncertainty ranges of the rate of mass loss from each ice sheet in 2100. In order to …
May 6, 2015 -
West Antarctic collapse in the IPCC reports
I have extracted some quotes from the IPCC reports since 1990 showing how West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse has been discussed over time. It is not an exhaustive list.
Jan 7, 2015 -
Review of global glacier volume estimates
This is an updated version of the regularized global glacier volume estimates from Cogley (2012). I have included 2 new estimates: one by myself (G13) and another from Huss and Farinotti (HF12). These …
Nov 10, 2014 -
Vulnerability of marine based sectors of Antarctica
Should we take the risk of Antarctic collapse seriously? The IPCC AR5 sea level chapter considered instability of marine-based sectors of the ice sheets to be unlikely (Church et al., 2013). However, …
Nov 3, 2014 -
AR5 sea level rise uncertainty communication failure
I am disappointed in how the sea level rise projection uncertainties are presented in the IPCC AR5. The way the numbers are presented makes people believe 98 cm by 2100 is a worst-case scenario which …
Oct 23, 2014 -
What does "likely" mean?
It can be quite difficult to interpret what likely exactly means sometimes. For example in the AR5 sea level chapter they report a likely range of 21-33 cm for thermal expansion (RCP8.5 table 13.5). I …
May 14, 2014